Post-Assad Syria, Lebanon: Israel’s New Diplomatic Frontier?

Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has signaled a new diplomatic frontier, expressing interest in establishing formal ties with Syria and Lebanon in the wake of significant regional changes, including the overthrow of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Saar indicated on Monday that the weakening of rival Iran, particularly after this month’s 12-day war, presents an opportune moment for such advancements, aiming to broaden Israel’s “circle of peace.”
A critical condition for Israel, as articulated by Saar, is the non-negotiable status of the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981 after seizing it from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War. This firm position immediately conflicts with Syria’s view of the territory as an integral part of its land, a view largely shared by the international community despite President Donald Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty.
This diplomatic initiative follows the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. These agreements, though significant breakthroughs, faced widespread unpopularity in the Arab world, highlighting the inherent challenges in forging such ties without addressing core regional grievances.
Indeed, a senior Syrian official, speaking anonymously, firmly stated that any normalization must be part of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which mandates Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, however, countered that conditioning normalization on Palestinian statehood is “not constructive” and a Palestinian state would “threaten the security of the State of Israel,” revealing a deep ideological divide.